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ATHENS: The Greek cabinet was expected to outline major
public sector layoffs, more spending cuts and tax increases on Wednesday to
secure a bailout instalment crucial to avoid running out of money next month.
Greece is the front line in a euro zone sovereign debt crisis that also engulfed
Ireland and Portugal and now threatens Italy, Spain and some of Europe's biggest
banks, risking plunging the West back into recession.
Officials said European governments are looking seriously at steps to
recapitalise banks most exposed to sovereign risk after initially rejecting an
IMF call last month for urgent action.
Fears of another credit crunch or recession due to Europe's inability to
overcome the debt crisis have dominated the run-up to this week's IMF/World Bank
and Group of 20 meetings of finance chiefs in Washington.
A Greek government spokesman said austerity measures negotiated in tough talks
with European Union and International Monetary Fund officials would be announced
in the afternoon after a special cabinet session.
Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos acknowledged before the meeting that
Greece's public finances would have gone off the rails without checks by the
so-called troika of EU/IMF inspectors, who walked out of Athens on Sept. 3 after
uncovering a new deficit shortfall.
But he also said the EU had failed to manage the debt crisis as decisively and
fast as required, and Greece was being blackmailed by the financial markets.
"Do we need to take additional measures? Yes, we need to take additional
measures," Venizelos told lawmakers, adding that the country needed the help of
its international lenders, who have imposed a string of unpopular tax rises,
pension cuts and economic reforms since they rescued the country in May 2010.
"If it weren't for the troika's control... unfortunately we would have derailed
fiscally," he said.
Venizelos had a two-hour conference call late on Tuesday with senior troika
officials, who pushed Greece to accelerate its austerity and reform drive to
release an 8 billion euro loan disbursement next month, without which Athens
will not be able to pay salaries, pensions and bills.
BUYING TIME
In a sign that a deal may be close, the European Commission announced after the
call that troika mission chiefs would return to Athens early next week to
complete their quarterly review of progress on Greece's adjustment programme.
Diplomats, economists and market analysts say Greece is likely to get the aid
tranche, if only to buy time for European governments to recapitalise wobbly
banks and strengthen the euro zone's rescue fund to cope with a default perhaps
early next year.
A Finance Ministry official said Venizelos had agreed to bring forward measures
from the so-called "mid-term plan," in which it has committed to slash its
budget deficit through 2014 and sell some 50 billion euros in state assets.
Greek media reported the measures were likely to include accelerated sackings of
state workers, pension and wage cuts for civil servants, increases in heating
fuel tax and extension of a one-off property tax announced.
The government has so far said it will immediately put up to 3,000 public
employees into a so-called labour reserve, in which they draw 60 percent of
salary for a year while looking for another state job. Another 20,000 would
follow in a second wave.
Those who do not find a job within 12 months would be dismissed. According to
government estimates, putting people in the labour reserve saves about 12,000
euros per year per worker.
The measure is part of Greece's overall commitment to cut the civil service
payroll by having 150,000 fewer civil servants less in 2015 than now -- about 20
percent of the total. The troika wants the layoffs speeded up.
BANK RECAPITALISATION
IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said European countries were warming to
the idea that banks in the region need to boost their capital to withstand
potential losses from the sovereign debt crisis.
If banks needing more capital are unable to raise more on financial markets then
public authorities might need to step in, although outright nationalisations are
not necessary, Blanchard said in a French television interview late on Tuesday.
The IMF called for widespread bank recapitalisations in Europe in late August
but met with stiff resistance from European governments.
However, Blanchard said he noted a clear change at a weekend meeting of EU
finance ministers and central bankers in Poland.
"The position of most European countries is, yes, we have a problem, capital
needs to be put into the banks," he told news channel France24. "It seems to me
there's been a 180-degree change in a lot of countries."
EU finance ministers agreed on Saturday that European banks must be strengthened
in the follow-up to July stress tests as an EU report said a "systemic" crisis
in sovereign debt now threatened a new credit crunch.
A Barclays Capital note said European banks could need some 230 billion euros to
preserve a 6 percent core Tier 1 ratio in the extreme case of 50 percent
haircuts on all sovereign debt of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain,
and the likely deep recession that would follow. The figure would be far smaller
if only Greece were provisioned.
European banking shares have suffered steep falls in recent weeks over concerns
about the sector's exposure to debt issued by Greece, with French banks
suffering some of the biggest losses.
The head of Germany's number two lender, Commerzbank said the debt crisis was
casting doubt on his bank's profit targets for this year, already softened last
month.
"August was certainly not a happy month for a lot of banks," Commerzbank CEU
Martin Blessing told Frankfurt business journalists.
Blessing said euro zone leaders had bought time by setting up the EFSF rescue
fund but they had so far failed to find a path out of the crisis. Investors were
awaiting reliable answers, he said.
"I believe we have reached a crossroads," Blessing said. If Europe wants to save
the single currency, it must move toward a fiscal union.
"A monetary union without a fiscal union, this construct has failed," he said.
AGENCIES
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